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人民币贬值重伤手机厂商利润 或又倒掉一批小厂zt by 震三江 on 2016-11-24

IHSTechnology中国研究总监王阳表示,今年好几个大的手机厂商都亏得厉害,明年越亏越多,挺不住的就得倒掉
一个多月来,人民币汇率犹如坐上了滑梯,一路滑下,在即将跌至6.90关口之时,人民币对美元中间价结束了12连跌的戏码。部分分析人士认为,人民币回调主要受到美元指数小幅走跌的影响,之后,人民币贬值的压力仍然存在。
国信证券指出,人民币贬值利好海外业务收入占比高的行业。在各个出口目的地国家中,我国对美国和欧盟的出口金额占比超过1/3。例如,2015年前11个月,我国出口美国和欧盟的出口金额占比达到34%,因此人民币兑美元和欧元贬值将利好出口型企业。从A股上市公司2015年中报的海外业务收入占比情况看,电子、国防军工、家用电器、计算机、纺织服装等行业的海外业务收入占比超过20%。
不过,单从手机行业来看,除了华为、中兴这样全球化的公司会相对好一些之外,人民币贬值对手机厂商利润的伤害普遍存在。
全球化公司影响不大
仅从手机业务来看,中兴和华为海外市场均占比较高。
2015年,中兴在美国一共卖出了1500万部手机,一跃成为美国第四大手机供应商,也是目前占领美国市场份额最大的中国手机企业。在其他国家,如澳大利亚、俄罗斯等,中兴也都是行业前五之列。在亚太地区、拉美和欧洲的手机市场,中兴手机的销量全面攀升。在中兴手机的全球版图中,海外市场占到了营业收入的70%。
IHS的数据显示,2015年华为手机全球出货量1.09亿,中国市场出货量6300万,中国市场销量占比达到57.8%,对国内市场依赖较大。不过华为2016年上半年财报显示,其消费者业务海外市场增速在提快。
根据华为2016年上半年财报,华为消费者业务在高端市场站稳脚跟,并开始突破多个海外国家和地区。华为消费者业务上半年完成销售收入774亿元人民币,同比增长41%;智能手机发货量6056万部,同比增长25%。其中,在中国市场,华为消费者业务增长18.6%(Gfk统计),份额位居第一,而海外市场增速是中国市场1.6倍。
而终端消费者业务只是华为和中兴业务的一个部分,其运营商业务和政企业务更是在海外有良好基础。
根据中兴通讯2016年半年报,报告期内,集团国际市场实现营业收入199.54亿元人民币,占集团整体营业收入的41.78%。其中,欧美大洋洲区域业务营收为96.19287亿元,据《证券日报》记者计算,占比为20.14%。
因此,对于中兴和华为这样的全球化公司来说,人民币贬值的影响不会太明显。中兴发言人此前在对此问题回应时表示,人民币贬值有助于抵消汇率损失,中兴预计人民币贬值对公司营收可以起到正面作用。华为方面在回复《证券日报》记者时也表示,华为作为全球化的公司,人民币贬值的正面影响和负面影响一叠加,基本也就没什么影响了。
重伤小厂利润
不过,对于另外那些主要以国内市场为主的手机厂商来说,人民币贬值带来的压力就显而易见了。
IHSTechnology中国研究总监王阳告诉《证券日报》记者,手机绝大部分关键器件都是美元报价,人民币贬值增加了手机厂商成本,对利润影响很大,明年手机小厂会倒掉一批,“小厂先倒,然后就是一些大厂。今年好几个大的手机厂商都亏得厉害,明年越亏越多,挺不住的就得倒掉。”
“本来人民币贬值有利于出口,但很多发展中国家的货币贬值得更厉害,这就进一步伤害了手机厂商的利润。很多公司都是直接去印度、印尼建工厂以减少汇率的影响。在欧美市场生意多的公司会相对好很多。”王阳解释道。
有手机大厂内部人士在与《证券日报》记者交流时表示,按照常理来说,进口的元器件更贵了,对企业利润是会有影响的,但是目前来看还好,因为元器件订货周期长,而且我们商业模式很健康,不是那种亏本赚吆喝的企业。保持利润是一个企业的正确追求。利润冲击大的一定先是商业模式不健康的企业。
除了人民币贬值,原材料涨价也给手机厂商带来压力。
王阳告诉《证券日报》记者,现在铜、金等原材料价格也在涨。如果一直涨的话,手机厂商也要涨价。
有另外的手机厂商内部人士向《证券日报》记者确认,现在手机基本都在涨价。
OPPO副总裁吴强此前在与《证券日报》等媒体交流时即透露,手机上游屏幕、内存等配件存在不同幅度涨价。对于OPPO新机R9sPlus的定价,吴强坦白称,一开始不是3499元,原来想定在3699元,原因之一就是整个供应链吃紧,原材料成本上涨。
供应链吃紧,物料涨价,这让国内手机厂商感到棘手。上游原材料的上涨成本得想办法转嫁或者消化,这本身也将是对国内手机厂商的考验。毕竟,反映到手机消费者购买选择上,性价比是一个重要考量因素。
王阳预计,“明年手机厂商会做高价格的手机多一些,毕竟这种利润好些。”
http://finance.qq.com/a/20161124/004268.htm
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zt:人民币汇率中间价大幅升值467点 为两个月来最强 by spj0124 on 2017-01-18

怎么和键委们说得不一样啊
![](https://b1.hoopchina.com.cn/post/smile/icon_scared.gif)
http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/rmb/2017-01-18/doc-ifxzqnim4903834.shtml
submitted by robot301_01 to kfq [link] [comments]

在岸离岸人民币双双突破6.54关口 刷新逾15个月新高 by jnzx2 on 2017-09-04

http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/rmb/2017-09-04/doc-ifykqmrv9128437.shtml
9月4日,在岸人民币兑美元升破6.54关口,截至发稿,最高升至6.5351,续创2016年5月以来新高。离岸人民币兑美元升至6.5388,突破6.54关口,刷新2016年6月以来新高。今日早间,据中国外汇交易中心的消息,人民币兑美元中间价报6.5668,大幅上调241点,为连续第6天调升。
近来美元持续疲软,人民币一路走高。8月累涨逾2%,创2005年7月汇改以来最大单月涨幅,今年以来人民币升值逾5%。
最近这段时间人民币升值太快了,我觉得真的到了应该担心外贸企业的程度了。
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救市啦ZT央行:明日起降息0.25个百分点 并实施定向降准 by a11233 on 2015-06-27

中国人民银行决定,自2015年6月28日起有针对性地对金融机构实施定向降准,以进一步支持实体经济发展,促进结构调整。(1)对“三农”贷款占比达到定向降准标准的城市商业银行、非县域农村商业银行降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点。(2)对“三农”或小微企业贷款达到定向降准标准的国有大型商业银行、股份制商业银行、外资银行降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点。(3)降低财务公司存款准备金率3个百分点,进一步鼓励其发挥好提高企业资金运用效率的作用。
同时,自2015年6月28日起下调金融机构人民币贷款和存款基准利率,以进一步降低企业融资成本。其中,金融机构一年期贷款基准利率下调0.25个百分点至4.85%;一年期存款基准利率下调0.25个百分点至2%;其他各档次贷款及存款基准利率、个人住房公积金存贷款利率相应调整。(完)

央行有关负责人就定向降准并结合下调存贷款基准利率答记者问
1、此次定向降准并结合下调存贷款基准利率的背景是什么?
答:今年以来,人民银行继续实施稳健的货币政策,更加注重松紧适度,适时适度预调微调,完善差别准备金动态调整机制,对部分金融机构实施定向降准,加强信贷政策的结构引导作用,鼓励金融机构更多地将信贷资源配置到“三农”、小微企业等重点领域和薄弱环节。同时,综合运用利率、存款准备金等多种工具组合,保持流动性合理充裕,引导市场利率适当下行,降低社会融资成本。总体看,随着各项政策效果的逐步显现,货币信贷和社会融资规模合理增长,银行体系流动性保持充裕,社会融资结构有所改善,各类市场利率均有所下行,企业融资成本高问题得到有效缓解。
在经济“新常态”背景下,我国经济正处在新旧产业和发展动能转换的接续关键期,稳增长、调结构、促改革、惠民生和防风险的任务还十分艰巨,需要继续灵活运用货币政策工具,通过结构调整促进经济平稳健康发展,并着力降低社会融资成本。同时,我国物价水平仍在低位运行,实际利率高于历史平均水平,也为运用存款准备金和利率工具提供了有利条件。鉴此,经国务院批准,人民银行决定再次定向下调金融机构人民币存款准备金率,同时结合下调金融机构贷款及存款基准利率,以更好地平衡好总量稳定与结构优化的关系,促进稳增长、调结构并降低社会融资成本。
2、此次定向下调存款准备金率措施的具体内容是什么?
答:此次定向下调金融机构人民币存款准备金率的主要内容:一是对2015年初考核中“三农”贷款达到2014年6月定向降准标准的城市商业银行、非县域农村商业银行降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点。此前,已对“三农”贷款达标的上述机构定向降准0.5个百分点,并累计对小微企业贷款达标的上述机构定向降准1个百分点。二是对2015年初考核中“三农”或小微企业贷款达到2014年6月定向降准标准的国有大型商业银行、股份制商业银行、外资银行降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点。此前,已对“三农”或小微企业贷款达标的上述机构定向降准0.5个百分点。这样,国有大型商业银行、股份制商业银行、城市商业银行、非县域农村商业银行和外资银行,只要在2015年初考核中符合审慎经营要求且“三农”或小微企业贷款达到2014年6月定向降准标准,均可执行较同类机构法定水平低1个百分点的存款准备金率。三是降低财务公司存款准备金率3个百分点,增强大型企业集团内部资金融通功能,提高资金周转效率,纾解国有企业资金和成本压力,支持实体经济转型发展。
3、此次为何没有在定向降准的同时普降准备金率?
答:4月末存款准备金率下调1个百分点后,银行体系备付金水平一度达到历史高位,预计6月末银行体系超额备付金水平仍将保持在3万亿元左右。同时,货币市场隔夜利率最低时降至接近1%的历史低位。近期受新股发行冻结巨量资金影响,银行间市场利率与最低点相比有所上升,但仍处于较低水平。银行体系流动性总体上较为充裕,并不需要普遍降低存款准备金率来提供流动性。
中国人民银行一直以来积极运用货币政策工具大力支持经济结构调整,特别是鼓励和引导金融机构更多地将新增或者盘活的信贷资源配置到“三农”、小微企业等领域。本届政府一贯重视定向调控,着力提高宏观调控的针对性和有效性。中央经济工作会议提出,2015年要继续实施定向调控、结构性调控。此次定向降准的目的正是为了增强金融机构支持“三农”、小微企业发展的能力,强化正向激励作用,支持国民经济重点领域和薄弱环节,有利于金融支持大众创业、万众创新。
4、此次下调存贷款基准利率对于促进降低社会融资成本有何积极意义?
答:2014年以来,为发挥好基准利率的引导作用,推动社会融资成本下行,支持实体经济持续健康发展,人民银行先后三次下调金融机构存贷款基准利率。其中,一年期贷款基准利率累计下调0.9个百分点至5.10%,一年期存款基准利率累计下调0.75个百分点至2.25%。在基准利率连续下调的引导下,2015年5月份,金融机构新发放贷款加权平均利率为6.16%,较去年同期下降0.91个百分点,创2011年以来的最低水平。同时,金融机构存款定价更趋理性,存款利率总体有所下行,分层有序、差异化竞争的定价格局基本形成。随着各项政策措施效果的逐步显现,货币市场利率和债券市场利率也有明显下行,社会融资成本整体有所降低。
从近几次降息的效果看,贷款利率虽已全面市场化,但央行公布的贷款基准利率仍然具有较强的导向和信号作用,进一步下调贷款基准利率可望继续引导实际贷款利率下行。加之同步下调存款基准利率,也有利于降低金融机构的筹资成本,带动各类市场利率和企业融资成本进一步下行,巩固前期宏观调控的政策效果。
5、下一步人民银行在货币政策调控方面还有哪些考虑?
答:此次定向降准并结合下调存贷款基准利率,重点是要进一步增强货币政策优化结构的重要功能,推动经济平稳健康可持续发展,同时继续发挥基准利率的引导作用,促进降低社会融资成本。下一步,我们将继续按照党中央、国务院的战略部署,坚持稳中求进工作总基调和宏观政策要稳、微观政策要活的总体思路,更加主动地适应经济发展新常态,注意把握好宏观政策的力度和节奏。继续实施稳健的货币政策,综合运用多种货币政策工具,加强和改善宏观审慎管理,优化政策组合,为经济结构调整和转型升级营造中性适度的货币金融环境。同时,进一步完善调控模式,进一步推进利率市场化和人民币汇率形成机制改革,疏通货币政策传导渠道,提高金融资源配置效率,促进经济科学发展、可持续发展。
央行降息又降准 盘点历次降准降息对A股影响


经济学家解读:
降准减息的最佳时机来临
腾讯财经智库特约 沈建光 瑞穗证劵亚洲公司董事总经理,首席经济学家
继上周遭遇7年来最大周跌幅的“黑色端午节”之后,本周A股再次震荡下行。截止6月26日收盘,沪指跌至4192.87点,较之前近5200点最高点回落约20%,投资者信心跌落谷底,牛市结束论亦扶摇直上。
可以看到,本轮股市大跌与决策层积极规范场外配资和加大IPO融资等举措密切相关。在笔者看来,上述措施有助于防范股市泡沫,确保资本市场长期健康发展,政策本身无可厚非。但是,经验表明,单一政策如果缺乏配套措施往往会产生放大效应,导致市场反应过度,甚至造成踩踏。例如,当前A股蓝筹估值并不高,相对于上证A股整体22倍、创业版142 倍的市盈率,银行股市盈率还不足8倍,但也在周五遭遇重挫。政策利空导致的无区分的全面回调很难说是市场更加健康的标志。
从这个角度而言,措施落地后效果能否符合初衷,不仅取决政策本身,更重要的是还需有合适的配套措施。实际上,今年以来,中国经济持续低迷,通胀较低且企业实际利率较高,笔者年前就做出了年内三次降息、五次降准的判断。而近一段时间,出于政策宽松或将助涨股市疯牛的担忧,降息、降准时点有所推迟。因此,笔者建议,借此管理层清理场外融资,防范股市风险之时,推出降息、降准不仅是货币政策在经济低迷,通缩风险之下相机抉择的重要表现,也能防止预期混乱、对场外配资清理等规范股市政策起到对冲之效,一举多得。
针对本轮资本市场的大幅上涨,笔者曾在两周前《牛市不需“国家战略”》文章做出了详细的分析。在笔者看来,A股市场从去年年中发力,告别2000点实现一定程度的上涨是有基础的,流动性宽松,改革预期兑现等原因都有助于A股的估值修复。然而,在经历了一年的快速上涨后,越来越多的风险也在显现,比如当前估值明显偏高,经济低迷与股市背离,改革预期远远领先于政策落地,股市财富效应与支持实体经济收效甚微,投资者杠杆率高加大金融与社会风险等等,值得管理层与投资人保持警惕。
不难发现,应对上述风险,官方近一个阶段态度也有所调整。例如,官方媒体减少对资本市场有倾向性的言论,加大对杠杆融资进行规范等等。在笔者看来,上述调整符合宏观审慎管理框架,也能避免投资者产生股市只涨不跌的预期,防范金融风险,是值得肯定的。
然而,经验表明,好的初衷能否收到良好效果,不仅取决于政策本身,更要考虑到是否采取配套政策,对其外溢性风险做好防范。以43号文为例,去年决策层推进财政改革的决心与力度有目共睹,43号文明确规范了政府融资平台行为,并为地方政府“开前门、堵后门”,是财税改革步入深水区的重要标志。
但是,由于当时并没有太多措施防范可能出现的财政悬崖,可以看到,受对地方融资平台严格措施落地的影响,地方政府早前曾一度无法保证在建项目开工,造成固定资产投资一路下滑的局面,反而对经济造成负面冲击。总结对其风险考虑不周之处,其后2万亿债务置换相继推出,配合同期宽松的货币政策,才较好的防范了财政悬崖风险,起到了既促改革,也不失稳增长的作用。
同理,在笔者看来,现在降息、降准恰逢其时。原因在于,从基本面来看,今年上半年中国经济增速已经继续下滑。一季度GDP回落至7%,名义增速仅为5.8%;同时,考虑到同期受资本市场反弹带动的金融增加值占GDP比重提高,实体运行经济的情况可能更要差于预期。
截止今年前5个月,中国经济数据更是逐月走低,目前为止,并未看到止跌趋势。特别是投资方面,1-5月,固定资产投资总额累计增速从上月的同比12%继续下滑至11.4%,降至2001年以来的新低。在笔者看来,若要保持今年GDP7%的增长与13.5%的固定资产投资,基建投资或许需要维持在25%左右的增速,因此未来保证合理的资金配套仍是关键。
此外,今年全球经济也比预想更困难、更复杂。美联储推迟加息、欧洲日本经济处于困境之中,大规模QE正在推出。新兴市场国家增长面临困境,特别是俄罗斯、巴西陷入负增长拖累相关出口。因此,全球经济不稳定与量化宽松是也使得中国面临的外部面临挑战,人民币相对非美元货币保持强势同样削弱着中国出口竞争力。因此,海内外经济低迷、实体经济运行乏力之下,借助当前通胀水平整体处于低位的时机,及时降准、降息确有必要。
毫无疑问,早前降息、降准推迟并非基本面好转,而与政策宽松或将助涨股市疯牛的担忧有关,是出于防范金融风险的考虑。按此逻辑,当前决策层规范股票市场,抑制场外配资活动,对高管违反承诺的减持行为进行查处确实必要。但造成预期混乱,股市踩踏发生也并非促进股市健康发展的初衷,借此机会降准降息一方面有助于稳增长,进而为企业盈利提供支持,降低泡沫,另一方面也能防范利空因素放大,对冲控制杠杆的负面冲击,一举多得。
实际上,政策协调配套可以起到较好效果,应该推而广之。比如,应对经济下滑,不仅需要货币政策积极,财政政策宽松也必不可少。考虑到今年地方债到期金额近3万亿,进一步增加置换额度仍有必要。此外,用好财政资金存量在当前财政收入面临较大压力之时也尤为重要,如今当前近3.5万亿的财政存款,如能继续将此部分资金用于民生支出及减税,将既能稳增长,也能起到调结构的作用。
更进一步,政策出台时效性也至关重要。稳增长与改革措施的推出,时效对政策效果影响非常大。比如,2万亿地方债置换如不及时实施,经济进一步下滑,会酿成地区性债务危机。同样,降准降息如果被延误,市场悲观情绪恶化,形成更多的融资盘爆仓,据报道目前有九成配资接近爆仓预警,如果任其风险暴露,将有连锁反映,其后政策再出手防止金融动荡的难度就会加大。所以,综合多方面因素考虑,目前是降准降息的最好时机。
submitted by robot301_01 to kfq [link] [comments]

香港房价有点悬!最新调查称一半人想离开zt by 震三江 on 2016-07-21

近日,*河蟹*公共政策智库思汇政策研究所发布报告称,“假设可以自由选择在世界上任何一个地方居住”针对这个问题,他们从2015年9月至今年1月在香港、上海、新加坡分别抽取了1500人进行调查。
结果显示,42%的香港人选择“离开”,而这一比例在新加坡有20%,上海只有17%。
换个角度思考,这或许也意味着,移民香港的人也在减少。

数据显示,2014年中至2015年中,香港一年增长5.69万人,除了人口自然增长的1.81万人,还有3.78万人是从内地持单程证到香港定居的新移民。
而单程证5万个名额在早些年供不应求,如今却有一万多的剩余。
无论是对香港人还是内地人,香港的魅力正在一步步丧失。
生活成本全球最贵
根据美世咨询公司的一份年度调查显示,香港已经成为全球外国人居住成本最高的城市。

其次是:罗安达、苏黎世、新加坡、日本东京、刚果金沙萨、上海、日内瓦、非洲乍得首都恩贾梅纳、北京。
港币与美元挂勾,美元走势恢复,或也会导致香港的生活水涨船高,例如房租高企,零售物价格推高或还会有所凸显。
有调查就显示,香港基本食粮的价格不但比伦敦贵,比新加坡也贵上不少。
以一公升牛奶的价格为例,香港平均要4.03美元,新加坡是2.83美元;一公斤的面包,香港要4.43美元,新加坡是3.56美元。同为亚洲金融中心,香港除了啤酒比新加坡便宜,其它方面的物价已经全面碾压新加坡。像去看一次电影,喝一杯咖啡的成本,均超出新加坡接近一倍。
我们再来看看房租。

虽然比不上连续两年蝉联第一的罗安达,但香港两居室的月租金是上海的1.6倍,北京的1.8倍。
港人收入远不能满足需求
根据英国一份调查显示,香港居民需要一个月赚12.8万元才不会焦虑。
但根据香港特区政府的数据,2015年二季度,香港家庭每月收入中位数仅为21900港元。并且仅有6.7%的家庭月收入8万港元及以上,还有16.2%的家庭月收入少于8000港元。
香港显然成了极少数人的“天堂”,大多数人的“噩梦”。
再来看看对比。
在1993年的时候,深圳年人均工资为8145元,香港年人均工资为118053.70元,香港是深圳的15倍;但到了2014年,深圳年人均工资为72648元,香港年人均工资为255928.79元,差距已经缩短到了3.5倍。

香港房价还要高位下跌
2016年的香港,房价位居全球第二。用100万美元只能买到20平方米,折合人民币325485元/平方米。
这么高的房价,再根据港人的收入,一个中产家庭想要在市中心买一套80平的房子,需要不吃不喝持续工作118年才能买得起。
当然,香港的房价很大程度上是被热钱炒起来的,也就是来自美国、日本的量化宽松“热钱”以及中国的投资客。
即使从2012年10月开始,香港对购买三年内出售的住宅征收“额外印花税”,打击在港炒楼行为,2013年又推出针对二套房的双倍印花税。
但是,在截至2015年7月的一年里,香港房价仍然同比上涨20.8%。由此可见,即便增加供给、抑制投机,但仍挡不住香港房价上涨的脚步。

不过目前香港房价下跌的预期也不少。
高力国际认为,在环球经济前景不明朗的情况下,影响香港住宅楼价自去年9月的历史高位至今回落10%。即使负利率环境及美国加息步伐缓慢令香港楼价在上一季回稳,但这并不足以扭转跌势,以全年计预期将最多跌15%。
另外,受到内地经济增长放缓影响,预期自2017年起的三年,香港楼市累计还将再跌三成。
香港旅游业下滑,失业率或上升
根据香港特区政府统计处发表的最新劳动人口统计数字,四月至六月经季节性调整的失业率为3.4%。最近一年,香港旅游业下滑严重。香港行政长官梁振英就说到,旅游业下降可能直接影响就业情况。
就拿那个全球最小的迪士尼来说。

其2015财年业绩报告显示,受内地访客人数和酒店入住率下跌影响,去年净亏损1.48亿港元。紧接着还进行了大裁员,连已在迪士尼工作超过10年的老员工也没能幸免。
偏爱在香港买黄金珠宝的大妈们,回内地有时候会发现,“怎么香港比家门口还贵呢!”
于是,周大福董事总经理近日也表示,预计年内会在香港旅游区关闭7至8间分店。
并且,由于人民币的贬值,港币兑人民币的汇率优势也在大幅变小。去过香港的人也会感觉到,在香港购物,好像也没便宜很多。
而这些都是影响香港房价的重要因素。
http://finance.qq.com/a/20160721/053882.htm
submitted by robot301_03 to kfq [link] [comments]

专家预测:一季度GDP下滑至6.85%左右,CPI为1.2%左右zt by 不莱恩特 on 2015-04-08

http://finance.qq.com/a/20150408/010759.htm
本周开始,今年3月份及一季度宏观经济数据将公布,目前上证综指离4000点仅一步之遥,一季度GDP、CPI等数据表现如何,牵动着市场神经。
从目前披露的情况来看,经济运行面临较大压力。多家主流机构研报均认为,主要经济数据会低于去年第四季度。市场预计,如果数据低于预期,极有可能进一步激发更多稳增长政策出台。新华社昨天也撰文称,经济下行需要股票市场提供有力支持,从另一面验证了上述机构的观点。
国家发改委一名人士昨日接受《第一财经(微博)日报》记者采访时表示,内部普遍将目前的经济形势定为“国际经济复苏缓慢、国内经济下行压力加大”。具体来看,尽管数据可能疲软,但内生动力强大,结构调整向好,政策储备还有很大的空间。
根据官方消息,3月下旬,国家发改委组织了11个调研组分赴全国各地展开经济形势调研。据上述发改委人士介绍,此次调研主要目的之一就是调查一季度经济形势,以便研判未来发展走势,为政策制定做好预研储备。此外,有关“十三五”规划及国家重大战略的调研也是重点。
一名官方研究机构学者对本报记者称,受节庆和季节等影响,一季度经济数据不会好于预期。但从经验来看,二季度开始才是影响全年经济走势的关键,政策的调控对市场信心和走势有着重要影响。
下行压力普遍存在
此前发布的数据显示,一季度经济继续放缓已成共识,市场预测的GDP增长率普遍集中在7%或以下。
国家信息中心发布报告认为,当前房地产市场调整与分化并存,通货紧缩风险显现,经济下行压力加大,但改革持续释放红利,宏观调控政策继续发挥支撑作用,宏观经济运行有望缓中趋稳,预计一季度国内生产总值(GDP)增长为7%左右。
此外,多家机构预警,要有跌破“7”的心理准备。中国社会科学院财经战略研究院研究报告预计,中国2015年一季度GDP下滑至6.85%左右,消费物价指数(CPI)为1.2%左右。
最新公布的3月采购经理指数(PMI)显示,制造业虽然有回暖趋势,但整体上受季节性因素影响较多,经济内生动力并没有实质性改善。在很多经济分析师看来,非制造业PMI指数的下滑反而更具代表性。
总体来看,3月及一季度整体数据的走低,很大程度上是因为房地产滑坡、工业投资疲软。不久前,四部委联合推出房地产调控新政,市场普遍认为,松绑不会逆转该行业的趋势,但有助于提高销量。
“从发改委的调研来看,下行压力普遍存在于全国多个经济发展程度不同的地区。”上述发改委人士表示,从东北地区到东南沿海,许多重要经济指标明显下滑,随之各种矛盾和问题也逐步显现出来,带给地方政府很多挑战和机遇。
从官方公布的1~2月地方经济数据来看,西部省份和东北经济下行特征尤为明显。如辽宁、黑龙江、吉林1~2月规模以上工业增速分别为-4.5%、0.8%、5.1%,在全国排名靠后。
与此同时,一向走在经济发展前沿的东部沿海地区也感受到了阵阵寒意。作为GDP占全国总量10%的东部经济发达省份,今年以来江苏省经济运行主要指标增幅均有不同程度回落,特别是外贸走势难以乐观。
4月2日,国家统计局局长马建堂赴河北省秦皇岛市调研当前经济形势时强调,当前我国经济处于新常态,总体情况是好的,尽管有下行压力,但结构升级加快,新动力正在孕育和积累。
企业家们充满信心
多位从事政策研究和调研的人士告诉本报记者,尽管经济增速走低,但企业家们充满信心,整个市场蕴藏着满满的能量,显示出不同以往的“新常态”。
国家发改委地区司司长刘苏社谈到调研情况时以江苏举例称,虽然经济增速存在下行压力,企业盈利能力、盈利水平普遍出现不同程度下降,但与2008年生产经营状况“陡坡式”下降出现的惊慌失措不同,企业对宏观经济持续健康发展有信心,对企业生产经营状况改善有预期。
数据层面,制造业企业生产经营活动预期指数最近两月明显回升。其中,2月份上升6.6个百分点,3月份上升7.3个百分点,达到61.3%,达到去年4月份以来的最高水平,反映出企业对国家稳增长的政策效应充满信心。
国务院总理*河蟹*在今年全国两会上对“大众创业、万众创新”的部署和国务院持续不断的政策礼包助推了全民创业的热情。有企业家对本报记者表示,他们对简政放权红利的释放、“一带一路”和“京津冀一体化”等重大经济战略的实施充满期待,认为将迎来重大机遇。
民生证券研报认为,受结构调整的影响,二季度经济下行压力将持续,但随着政策红利的逐步显现,三、四季度经济指数将会回升,有望完成全年任务。
目前,建筑业、结构调整、就业等方面已开始出现明显变化。企业转型升级、联合重组步伐加快,有利于提高企业竞争力,增强微观经济活力;高新技术产业、装备制造业继续较快发展;信息消费等新的消费热点正在加快形成;互联网及信息技术服务业的提升是信息消费升级趋势进一步增强的体现。
政策储备有哪些
对于应对经济下行,中国高层和主要官员在多个场合曾明确表态称有足够的“政策储备”。在刚刚结束的博鳌亚洲论坛年会上,国家*河蟹**河蟹*表示,中国经济体量大、韧性好、潜力足、回旋空间大、政策工具多。
短期内可能使用的政策有哪些?从本报记者采访的多名受访人士观点来看,一方面政府将继续加大简政放权的机构改革力度,进一步激发市场活力;此外,整合企业走出去及调动民间资本加快推进基础设施的建设将成为亮点;最后,货币与财政政策共同助力稳增长被认为是最值得期待的重磅政策之一。
继去年11月份降息之后,今年2月份,央行[微博]普降了金融机构存款准备金率并有针对性地实施定向降准措施;3月30日,四部门又联合推出房地产新政,助力改善性需求。
瑞银认为,由于一季度数据可能显示经济依然“乏力”,预计央行将进一步出台政策,第二季度和下半年或迎来两次降息,以及一到两次存款准备金率下调。
日前,央行货币政策委员会2015年第一季度例会在北京召开。会议认为,当前我国经济金融运行总体平稳,但形势的错综复杂不可低估。
值得注意的是,会议强调继续实施稳健的货币政策,提出更加注重松紧适度,灵活运用多种货币政策工具,保持适度流动性,实现货币信贷及社会融资规模合理增长。
此外,针对实体经济发展和进出口,会议提出要改善和优化融资结构和信贷结构提高直接融资比重,降低社会融资成本;进一步推进利率市场化和人民币汇率形成机制改革,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。
中国社会科学院财经战略研究院建议,第二季度财政政策需加力增效,防止资金沉淀;货币政策加强与财政政策配合,防止地方债发行产生挤出效应,继续降准降息。中长期政策仍需坚持深化改革,促进经济结构调整和创新驱动的内生经济增长。
*河蟹*====经济持续下行压力山大,建委们怎么看?
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钢铁裁员潮已波及特大国企 武钢集团或裁1.1万人 zt by 震三江 on 2015-12-14

钢铁裁员潮已开始从中小型民企波及特大型国企。界面新闻记者独家获悉,武汉钢铁集团公司(下称武钢集团)旗下A股上市公司,武汉钢铁股份有限公司(下称武钢股份,600005.SH)已出台减员增效实施方案,计划在三个月内裁员6196人。
武钢股份2014年报显示,共有在职员工27760人,意味着此次裁员幅度超过两成。
此次裁员将在2016年2月底前完成。同时,武钢股份将开展定编定岗工作、开展全员竞争上岗工作、开展离岗安置工作。
多位匿名的武钢集团在职员工告诉界面新闻记者,整个武钢集团或将裁员1.1万人,且将在明年全员减薪20%。
然而,界面新闻记者致电武钢集团对外宣传办公室主任孙劲时,对方称“武钢绝不存在裁员减薪这回事”。对于全员减薪20%,他解释称,武钢集团近两年一直对全体员工实行“经济承包责任制”,没有完成工作目标的,将被最高扣除20%的工资。
界面新闻记者获取的武钢股份条材总厂12月2日的工作内刊显示,武钢集团提出要将全口径人工成本降低20%,但确保职工收入不降低。这表示,武钢集团将通过裁员、而非减薪的途径降低人工成本。
对于近期网传的“武钢集团董事长马国强就减产减员致全体职工的公开信”,武钢集团官网微信“幸福武钢”于12月7日进行了辟谣。这起“董事长公开信风波”与日照钢铁、包钢集团相似传闻一样,属于虚假消息。
但一位不愿具名的武钢在职员工称,明年全员减薪20%的消息是工段领导到车间通知的,“他们的消息不会错,除非政策突变。”该员工称,现在武钢集团各单位的员工均已获悉裁员减薪的消息,且反响很大,“我们已经连续被扣了四年绩效,现在什么福利都没有,过年也不发钱了。”
上述内刊显示,武钢集团要求武钢股份旗下的条材总厂,2016年工资预算减降20%,混岗劳务费减降50%,天车劳务费减降30%。
这份内刊列数IBM西门子微软联想控股等企业近期裁员的案例,称“制造业形势尤为严峻,武钢也不例外”,并写道:“生存的警钟连续敲打,如果我们还因循守旧不作重大变革,就只有等待破产重组,人力资源不能最大限度优化,‘冰冻期’就御寒无望,随之而来就是我们的岗位、饭碗不保。”紧接着便提出了降低人工成本的要求。
上述内刊显示,武钢集团人工成本过高,劳动效率处于行业较低水平。今年1-8月,武钢集团全口径人工成本高达78.4亿元。对标世界先进钢铁企业,武钢集团劳动生产率仅为同行的1/3;对标国内先进民营钢企,武钢集团吨钢人工成本是同行的3倍左右。
卓创资讯分析师李颖称,目前带钢和钢坯钢厂吨钢亏损均超过200元/吨,而去年同期至元旦期间尽管钢厂盈利较低,在50元/吨以内,但并不至于亏损。
“目前钢厂的亏损并不能怪罪于原料的价格高,事实上今年外矿价格下跌速度已超过带钢和钢坯以及其他成材,”李颖认为,原料的成本占比在逐渐减少,在成本变化中发挥的作用也越来越小,因此钢厂在目前行业利润如履薄冰的情况下,把握好财务成本、人工成本以及其他费用显得尤为重要。
事实上,武钢集团早已开始在人工成本上精打细算。今年9月初,武钢集团称将陆续派遣300余名职工,去其他企业或单位就任协警、保安和物业等岗位。这些被派遣的员工是钢铁行业不景气背景下出现的冗余劳动力,武钢集团将其派遣出去,是为了解决他们的“吃饭”问题。武钢集团董事长、党委书记马国强等人还在现场为职工送行,并加油打气。
遗憾的是,武钢集团的业绩数据还在不断恶化。上述内刊显示,今年前十个月,武钢集团亏损50.57亿元,其中8月人民币汇率三天内贬值4.5%,使其产生汇兑损失15.47亿元。
今年前九个月,武钢股份陷入亏损10.01亿元,利润比上年同期骤减200%,而在今年上半年,武钢股份尚且盈利5.22亿元。这意味着在第三季度,武钢平均每月亏损逾5亿元。武钢由此陷入极为严重的资金链紧张,第三季度经营活动产生的现金流净额低至-25.01亿元。
与国内同行相比,武钢股份的盈利能力正在不断下滑。上述内刊显示,2011-2014年,武钢股份钢铁主业吨材利润在62家钢协对标企业中的排名分别为第15、17、13、10位,2015年1-7月,武钢股份钢铁主业吨材利润-32元,排名降至第25位,与排名第一的石横特钢相比,吨材盈利相差202元,与宝钢集团相比则相差198元。
作为新中国成立后兴建的第一个特大型国有钢铁联合企业,武钢自1955年破土建设,1958年9月建成投产,是中央和国务院国资委直管的国有重要骨干企业。本部厂区座落在湖北省武汉市东郊、长江南岸,占地面积21.17平方公里。1999年,武钢旗下子公司武钢股份在上海证券交易所挂牌上市。
2005年以来,武钢集团先后与鄂钢、柳钢、昆钢重组,目前成为生产规模逾4000万吨的大型钢企,居全球钢铁行业第四位。武钢集团已连续6年进入《财富》世界500强名单,2014年位列第310名,今年则跌至第500名。
2012年,武钢集团利润总额在行业内排名第2,2014年排名第5,今年7月末则在111家央企中排名倒数第5,在101家大中型钢企中排名第89位。
近年来,武钢集团的海外投资亦屡遭诟病。2008年以来,武钢集团通过股权收购和项目合作等方式,先后在巴西、加拿大、非洲等地布局了8座矿山,拥有海外资源权益数百万吨。不过,这些矿山的品位都不高,多在30%左右,提炼成本大幅增加。武钢在巴西和加拿大投资的MMX铁矿和Bloomlake铁矿,已宣布破产停产。
作为武钢集团主攻高档汽车板和高档家电板市场的关键项目,防城港钢铁基地已于今年6月28日将第一条生产线投产,这一2030mm冷轧项目年生产规模达210万吨。
不过,该项目不仅面临强劲对手宝钢集团湛江项目的激烈竞争——二者市场定位几乎完全相同,而且与国内“去产能”的趋势相悖。
目前,中国钢铁产能11亿-12亿吨,但国内经济下滑,房地产、公共基础建设等都在萎缩,国内需求总量大约在6亿-7亿吨,供多于求近乎一倍。中国钢铁行业已进入“减量化发展”时代,产销双降更是大势所趋。在此背景下,武钢与同行一样,必将面临更为艰难的转型之痛。
http://finance.qq.com/a/20151214/010999.htm
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zt央行官员:央行对汇率和外储并未设定任何底线 by dantario on 2017-03-13

http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/rmb/2017-03-13/doc-ifychhus1012560.shtml
据路透社报道,中国央行营业管理部主任周学东在两会期间接受路透专访时称,3万亿美元外储仍处于比较高水平,过去两年央行动用了一些外储向市场提供流动性支持,导致其总量有所下降,主要目的是防范外汇市场剧烈波动,避免汇率“超调”。而目前所采取的一些“稳汇率”、“稳外储”的做法,实质是对预期的管理和引导。
“据我所知,我们对人民币汇率和外汇储备从未设定任何底线,市场对人民币汇率到了某个节点就会猜测,猜测过程中就形成了一种预期;其实,我们并不担心外储和汇率具体变动到哪个位置。”他称。
不过周学东同时强调,保持人民币汇率的基本稳定和外汇储备维持在一定水平,是一个基本的政策取向。
他进一步解释道,之前人民币升值太快太高,可能人民币存在一定高估,因此一定会有回调;但对贬值预期如果不加以引导管理,就会形成汇率剧烈回调,甚至超调,这对宏观经济很不利,对微观主体也不利。
“我们并不刻意追求人民币的升值或贬值,因为不可持续。短期可能还有效,时间稍微长点根本不可持续。”周学东称。
他强调,目前看,人民币汇率有升有贬,双向波动,处于基本稳定的态势。总之,尊重市场,汇率形成机制市场化,总体由市场决定,是一个重要原则。
在周学东看来,这两年中国企业“走出去”步伐大大加快,中国对外直接投资已超过外商来华投资,中国成了资本净输出国。特别是去年,资本项下对外跨境支付比较快,有些项目可能不一定符合国家产业政策导向,有些可能是炒作房地产等境外资产,也有的项目可能缺乏真实性,甚至做套利交易等。周学东指出,对任何一个发展中国家而言,外汇储备都是非常珍贵的资源,尽管中国外储较多,也要珍惜着用。
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原文这个标题我就不改了。。。。。各位愿意怎么看就怎么看吧
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央行参事盛松成:房地产税设计复杂 几年内难推出ZT by 回首小时候 on 2016-12-19

“中央经济工作会议提出稳健货币政策偏中性,明年的货币政策不会放松,2017年广义货币供应量(M2)增速估计不会超过12%。‘中性’表述也不意味着明年货币政策偏紧,这会引起市场动荡。”
12月18日,2016~2017中国宏观经济形势分析与预测年度报告会在上海举行。对于明年“稳健中性”的货币政策,中国人民银行参事盛松成做了上述分析,他认为考虑到汇率等因素影响,明年货币政策不具备放松条件。
对于明年继续实施积极财政政策方面,盛松成告诉第一财经记者,估计今年实际财政赤字率达到3.5%左右,明年预算内财政赤字率肯定会突破3%,可能在3%~4%区间里,未来财政赤字率还有提高空间,必要时甚至达到5%。
另外他注意到,此次中央经济工作会议要求加快建立房地产长效机制,这将改变中国以往房地产调控中以短期、需求端为主的调控方法,而注重房地产供给端的长期调控,即通过增加土地供应、提高住宅面积等举措来抑制房价过快上涨。
货币政策稳健中性
在上述报告会上,如何解读近日中央经济工作会议透露的政策动向成为焦点。
中央经济工作会议提出,2017年继续实施稳健的货币政策。货币政策要保持稳健中性,适应货币供应方式新变化,调节好货币闸门,努力畅通货币政策传导渠道和机制,维护流动性基本稳定。
盛松成表示,货币政策稳健中性提法值得关注,其个人理解是,在即将过去的一年实施的货币政策可能偏松了一点点,但明年货币政策也不会提偏紧,这会引起市场动荡。上海财经大学高等研究院院长田国强在会上表示,明年货币政策稳健中性的“中性”提法,可能意味着货币政策会比今年略微收紧一些。
上海财经大学高等研究院在报告会上发布的《中国宏观经济形势分析与预测年度报告(2016~2017)》(下称《报告》)称,若央行2017年主要政策目标为维持经济增长速度,那么货币政策将呈现略微宽松的态势;若主要政策目标是维持人民币汇率稳定,货币政策就有可能呈现略微紧缩的态势;若2017年的主要政策目标为维持经济增长速度,为辅的是维持汇率稳定,货币政策宽松幅度有限,预估降准只有25个基点。
盛松成分析,明年货币政策也不具备放松的条件。因为货币政策不仅要考虑稳增长,也需要考虑汇率变动、通货膨胀、股市、楼市等方面。另外这次中央经济工作会议还提到把防控金融风险放到更加重要的位置,这需要控制货币供应量。预计明年广义货币供应量M2增速不会超过12%。据悉,今年M2增长的预期目标是13%左右,前11个月M2实际增速是11.4%。
关于财政政策,此次中央经济工作会议提出,继续实施积极的财政政策。财政政策要更加积极有效,预算安排要适应推进供给侧结构性改革、降低企业税费负担、保障民生兜底的需要。此前多位专家接受第一财经记者采访时都认为,财政政策力度会比今年更大,明年财政赤字率会突破3%。
《报告》对2017年财政赤字率做了不同情境假设下的预测,赤字率空间是3%~5.75%。如《报告》假设中美贸易摩擦导致2017年我国出口下降1%,2017年GDP实际增长不及预期目标(6.5%)但相差幅度不远,政府无需放宽货币政策,而靠财政政策收拢增速缺口,预计财政赤字率达到3.26%。在最保守悲观情境下,财政赤字率达到5.75%。
盛松成认为,在考虑我国债务规模等因素测算后,中国财政赤字率可以提高到4%,甚至5%。
田国强表示,在中国经济已经进入增速放缓、产能总体过剩、债务率居高不下的大背景下,财政政策和货币政策的效应都是短期的,尤其是高强度的财政与货币刺激政策代价十分巨大,需要谨慎使用。中国经济要实现稳中求进,必须推进市场导向的结构性体制和治理改革。
楼市调控注重长短期结合
今年一线城市和部分二线城市房价过快上涨引起社会广泛关注。
此次中央经济工作会议提出,坚持“房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的”的定位,综合运用金融、土地、财税、投资、立法等手段,加快研究建立符合国情、适应市场规律的基础性制度和长效机制,既抑制房地产泡沫,又防止出现大起大落。
盛松成称,近十几年来,中国对房地产调控都是以短期、需求端为主,采取多是限购、限贷措施来抑制需求来控制房价,但这种单一需求调控却难以抑制房价上涨预期,导致房价越调越高。
“此次中央经济工作会议提出建立房地产调控长效机制,这意味着中央将改变以往单一短期、需求端调控方法,而是在此基础上更加注重供给调控。”盛松成称。
在需求端调控上,此次中央经济工作会议提出严格限制信贷流向投资投机性购房;而在供给端调控上,会议提出要落实人地挂钩政策,根据人口流动情况分配建设用地指标。落实地方政府主体责任,房价上涨压力大的城市要合理增加土地供应,提高住宅用地比例,盘活城市闲置和低效用地。特大城市要加快疏解部分城市功能,带动周边中小城市发展。
对于市场关注的房地产税,盛松成认为由于房地产税设计复杂,几年内很难推出。
另外,目前房地产供给问题比较突出,盛松成表示,这体现在多数大中城市土地供应在逐年下降,土地拍卖“量减价增”,住宅用地和新建住宅供应不足。
他建议,未来可以改进土地拍卖制度,借鉴上海车牌拍卖的方法来控制土地拍卖价格。通过改变对地方GDP考核要求,来减少地方政府引进工业投资提高GDP的冲动,从而将更多用地用于住宅建设,而非工业用地。
http://finance.qq.com/a/20161219/024311.htm
submitted by robot301_01 to kfq [link] [comments]

[Business] - IMF issues world's RMB-identified forex reserves for first time

[Business] - IMF issues world's RMB-identified forex reserves for first time submitted by AutoNewsAdmin to CHINADAILYauto [link] [comments]

[Business] - IMF issues world's RMB-identified forex reserves for first time | China Daily

[Business] - IMF issues world's RMB-identified forex reserves for first time | China Daily submitted by AutoNewspaperAdmin to AutoNewspaper [link] [comments]

RMB expected to stabilize after forex adjustment

submitted by rotoreuters to betternews [link] [comments]

3000RMB vs 3000USD

Recently there’s a heated debate around the topic of the buying power of 3000 USD and 3000 RMB in USA and China. And how the results are related to the daily life of each nation’s citizens. Thus, I am here to analyze the difference of buying power between 3000 USD and 3000 RMB.
First of all, the situation here is actually more complicated than one might think, 3000 USD as of current translates to 20758.50 RMB on forex. Which is why just simply straight up comparing the two isn’t by any means fair. A fairer topic of discussion would be the difference of buying power between the average citizen of the two nations. However, criticizing the topic doesn’t mean I won’t give this topic a fair analyzes.
What would life look like with 3000 USD in America and 3000 RMB in China?
Well, first of all we need to settle on a city for comparison, America have 50 states while China have 23 provinces. The prices change dramatically between city to city, state to state, province to province. Thus, for the sake of fair comparison, we will compare Shang Hai to New York. Both are the cities with the most amount of GDP per capita with in their nation. However, once again for the sake of fairness a note had to be made here, Shang Hai have a significantly larger population, and a much lower GDP per capita.
To make the comparison, I will make a budget living plan for both NYC and Shang Hai. The living plan will include health care, telephone bill, rent, food, electricity & hydro, and transport. The budget won’t include furniture or clothing as they aren’t something which is bought monthly.
New York:
- Housing (1,100$): According to renthop.com (https://www.renthop.com/average-rent-in/new-york-city-ny), the average 1 bed room rent ranges from 2650-3550dollamonth. According to rentcafe.com (https://www.rentcafe.com/average-rent-market-trends/us/ny/manhattan/), the average rent over all reaches a astonishing 4,208 dollamonth. Thus, to make a functional housing plan requires a bit more thought put into it.
After a bit of searching, I am able to find a 1,100-dollar living space, the downside being having to live with 3 other roommates. (https://www.apartments.com/common-robinson-new-york-ny/5r6bl3n/)
- Health care (500$): Unfortunately, I am denied access to the health care market place for New York city because of my non-New York IP. (https://info.nystateofhealth.ny.gov/) However, individual researches tells us that the average new yorker spends a 6,335$ on health care annually. So averagely the health care spending per month would be roughly 500$.
- Transport (127$): A unlimited monthly metro card in New York is 127.00$. (https://www.tripsavvy.com/new-york-city-subways-and-buses-1612185#:~:text=New%20York%20City%20subway%20fares,fare%2C%20which%20is%20half%20price.) However, it’s worth mentioning that the New York public transport system is know to be inefficient, dirty and overall problematic.
- Water & electricity (263.84$): So on average the newyorker spends 173.84$ on electricity (https://patch.com/new-york/larchmont/here-s-how-much-utilities-cost-new-york-residents)
Combining data from NYC government (https://www1.nyc.gov/site/dep/pay-my-bills/how-we-bill-you.page) and the average water usage of American house holds (http://www.keyportonline.com/content/4031/4050/4243/4371.aspx#:~:text=The%20average%20person%20uses%20from,2%2C430%20cubic%20feet%20per%20person.), the average cost of water will be around 90$.
- Communication (75$): the average cell phone cost in New York is 75 dollar per month. (https://stefanieoconnell.com/much-need-live-new-york-city/#:~:text=Cell%20Phone%3A%20%2475%2Fmonth,be%20had%20in%20this%20category.)
- Food (750$): food cost ranges person to person, epically considering America’s insanely high diabetic rate of 36%. (https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p0718-diabetes-report.html) Thus the cost of food is mostly up to estimations. (https://green-mart.us/product-category/beverages-mixers/) is a good place to start. After some calculation, if I were too cook myself, the average cost would be around 20$/day. While if I were to eat out all month, the price would in increased to 36$/day according to traveling websites. Thus, we take the average and get 25$ per day. 25X30 and we get 750$ spent on food.
The final cost would be 2815.84, which lefts us with 185 dollars for dealing with emergencies. We would be eating just fine. However, with this budget, one is stuck to living with 3 other roommates and having to use the terrible New York public transit every single day.
Shang Hai:
- Housing (1400$): Due to the large population base, we don’t have an exact number on the average rent. However, that won’t stop us from making a budgeted living plan by finding houses online for rental. (https://sh.zu.anjuke.com/fangyuan/1483960300806147?isauction=2&shangquan_id=22039&legoFeeUrl=https%3A%2F%2Flegoclick.58.com%2Fjump%3Ftarget%3DpZwY0ZnlsztdraOWUvYKuaYYrH0Yrjc3ridBnHDQsHELnWDVrHDvnidhPA76uWKWuW9YrjmKPH9dnWELnHDvP1EvPjEKTHDYrjnOPWT1njT3njmQPj0KP10knTDLP1TkTHD_nHTKn9DQPHb3njN3njnYrjT1THcKwbnVNDnVENGssXXMMSpcfzLMoufG9cM-BFxCCpWGCUNKnEDQTEDVnEDKnHcOPWbLPjnYn1ndPHNQrjbLP9DvTyGGmNI-rWDknjKxnHNknTDQTHc3m1EvuWNYsyNzPj0VPjDvPaYOuWbvsynkmyPhuHFBnHR6rEDQnWbvrH0Yn1E1Pj9dPHnknHDzTHDzrHmOP1E1PjnYnHTkPjEOnW9KTEDKTEDVTEDKpZwY0Znlszq1paOlIiO6UhGdpvN8mvqVsvu6UhIOIy78sLGJnHTzsk7jE1PjrDNvnBdDnYD1sNNknbDVwHEQPidDPNPanDnYP1RjPDDKP1T8P1D8nHTdsWEzTHTKnTDKnikQnE7exEDQnjT1P9DQnjTQPWmdTH7hm1TQuWbYsHTvrAmVPj93uBY3nAEYsHwWmW9YPjTzmhmzrEDKPTDKTHTKnBkQPjDQsjcznjnOTHDKUMR_UTDYP16BmyDOPHEYnWuBPWPb&lego_tid=1fc01f94-068f-488f-80d4-4cb84402bf29&from=Filter_2&hfilter=filterlist) Here’s a very lovely house I’ve found for 1400, you get to not only live alone, but it also comes with your own kitchen and bathroom. And it’s also insanely close to the public transport system.
- Health Care (20$): The annual fee is around 250$ for health care in China.
- Transport (100$): Since the month pass got canaled, transport fee depends from person to person. Assuming we don’t work on the other side of the city, averagely 100$ would be spent per month.
- Water & electricity (200$): Judging from official numbers (https://www.sohu.com/a/296444679_667422)
The cost would be around 200$ maximumly for a single person.
- Communication(38$): you can get a cell phone plan for 18$ (https://zhidao.baidu.com/question/1767039690840279060.html) being generous we will go with the 38$ plan.
- Food (900$): Food cost in Shang Hai is a very hard number to measure. Assuming we are going full luxury, 900$ would get you covered for a month.
The total cost would end up around 2620$. With 380$ to spare. And not only do you get an entire apartment all to your self, you also get plenty of money left over to spend.
Now this comparison can be unfair due to the population of Shang Hai and New York, but it’s still astonishing how despite dollar being almost 7 times more valuable than yuan, yuan still holds just as much purchasing power in China. Not only do you get apartment all to yourself in Shang Hai (unlike newyork where you’ll end up with 3 room mates), you also save a lot more.
submitted by Bolshevik-Blade to Sino [link] [comments]

Why China is Pumping China Stocks

Why China is Pumping China Stocks
TLDR: China is actively fighting domestic capital outflows. They are incentivising keeping funds on-shore by pumping the equity markets. Buy large China stocks (BABA, JD).
Inb4 pos or ban
The Economics
China has a fixed exchange rate regime. Blah blah RMB internationalization, blah blah offshore RMB (which is actually settled in US dollars). This places it within line C of the policy trilemma (which says, you can't sustainably have all 3). Since 2005 to about 2017, the government was moving towards free capital mobility because of large amounts of exports which fed the national forex reserves. You bet billions of RMB left China, which the government didn't really like at first because that reduced domestic investment and would contribute to a weaker RMB. Basically, China was trying to do all 3 which works for a short while... until your forex reserves run out.

https://preview.redd.it/g0nwsssoe7f51.png?width=580&format=png&auto=webp&s=0e46b6b2cfa12b351b30ff2c5567c2f9992e99b2

The Current Problem
The trade war has definitely been bad for China. I am going to try and skip politics, but basically foreign exchange reserves have been gapping down (official Chinese data is 100% fake). China is increasingly bellicose as well, which doesn't improve relations with trading partners who also buy with US dollars.
You can't exchange for US dollars anymore. For private citizens, you can only exchange for education purposes or travel . For companies, you need verification of invoices through both SAFE (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) and the tax offices. This used to take 24hrs, but is now taking 2-3 weeks for amounts >$500k. China also has US dollar denominated bank accounts. But unfortunately, you can't take it in cash unless you have the reasons above. Chinese media is also branding holding US dollars as unpatriotic, so I'm afraid my $50k in digital money might be subject to confiscation. If not, it's just fake money (can't take cash or wire out).
China has been brrrrrring to the pace of JPOW. Weapon of choice are muni and local bonds, which have been forced upon local banks. This creates a certain credit problem, but let's not worry about that until later.

https://preview.redd.it/maul8aope7f51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=36dd4665517ec7303b51aa1416517c9e0ea50bef

The Solution
China's pretty smart. All those RMB quotes are fake. You can try to get US dollars, but that is almost impossible now. Anyone who wants to buy RMB, contact me and we'll trade at the current price. So looking at the impossible triangle, free capital mobility has become nonexistent. In order to keep exchange rate stability (to avoid a sudden rush towards the door) and keep printing, free capital mobility needs to be 100% sacrificed.
How do you do that with a population that has seen the west and aspire to get out? You need to keep the money onshore. Thankfully, all Chinese are greedy and the equity markets are full of retailers that pump stocks up or down 10% per day. This is one of the reasons for the early July State Council report calling for everyone to buy stocks. Who's buying? Everyone. And if it drops, the national team takes over.
This creates a powerful incentive to fill the foreign reserves again. Foreigners (funds) would want to get in on the action. They will exchange their dollars for RMB, get those 20% gains, but eventually find out trying to get that money back into USD is impossible.
China has also been strengthening the RMB from 7.10 to 6.96 as of yesterday. Smart, because why would you want to sell an asset that's weakening? This is also a reason why China fears gold rallies - buying gold causes RMB to leave. Happily for the SAFE, some banks have stopped offering their paper gold products.
China will pump its domestic markets. Unless you have a Chinese account, the closest thing you can get to are mega names like Alibaba, JD and Tencent. I would avoid touching too small companies because of LK coffee problems.
Oh yeah the trade war? Well, pussies don't make money.
submitted by 1poundbookingfee to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Your Pre Market Brief for 07/16/2020

Pre Market Brief for Thursday July 16th 2020

You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub.
Updated as of 4:45 AM EST
-----------------------------------------------
Stock Futures:
Wednesday 07/15/2020 News and Markets Recap:
Thursday July 16th 2020 Economic Calendar (All times are in EST)
(JOBLESS CLAIMS TODAY)
News Heading into Thursday July 16th 2020:
NOTE: I USUALLY (TRY TO) POST MANY OF THE MOST PROMISING, DRAMATIC, OR BAD NEWS OVERNIGHT STORIES THAT ARE LIKELY IMPORTANT TO THE MEMBERS OF THIS SUB AT THE TOP OF THIS LIST. PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH! THE TIME STAMPS ON THESE MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB.
Upcoming Earnings:
Commodities:
COVID-19 Stats and News:
Macro Considerations:
Most Recent SEC Filings
Other
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Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub
submitted by Cicero1982 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

[Diplomacy] China-EU FTA

[Closed--as much as any trade negotiation with the EU can be]

The EU has slowly been extending its vast array of free trade agreements to cover much of the world, and, quite simply, China, as a member of our peaceful and prosperous rule-based international order, wants in.

This new FTA would massively expand the EUs zone of free trade, increasing it by nearly twenty trillion, as well as increasing our trade ties with the world by a roughly equivalent amount.

While we understand that developing this trade agreement will be a difficult and complex task, we have some thoughts on where to start:

European Concessions



Chinese Concessions


Joint Projects



These are really just a starting point, and we'd like to hear the EU's thoughts on this matter. Negotiating trade agreements with the EU is known to be difficult, but we think we may find it worthwhile.
submitted by AmericanNewt8 to Geosim [link] [comments]

Chinese Yuan Weakens After Donald Trump Signs Hong Kong Bill

submitted by cc_hk to worldnews [link] [comments]

Inflation, Gauge Symmetry, and the big Guh.

Inflation, Gauge Symmetry, and the big Guh.
Sup retards, back at it with the DD/macro.
scroll to the rain man stuff after the crayons if you don't care about the why or how.
TLDR:
June 19 $250 SPY puts
May 20 $4 USO puts
SPY under 150 by January next year.

So I was going about my business, trying to not $ROPE myself as my sweet tendies I made during the waterfall of March have evaporated, however, I heard that the fed was adding another $2.3T in monopoly money to the bankers pile specifically to help facilitate these loan programs being rolled out.
In short, they are backing these dumb-ass, zero recourse, federally mandated, loans with printing press money.
But cumguzzler OP, your title is about inflation and guage simp--try, why are you talking about the fed #ban.
Well, when you print money it is an inflationary action in theory. Let me explain.

EDUMACATION TIME

What is inflation? Inflation is the sustained increase in the price level in goods and services. Inflation is derived from a general price index, and in the US, from the consumer price index. Knowing that inflation is an outcome, not a set policy is very important. Inflation is a measurement after the fact, much like your technical astrology indicators. (**ps, use order flow in your TA you wizards**)
HOWEVER, the actual act of buying bundles of these loans does not directly impact inflation.
Now what is Gauge symmetry? Gauge symmetry is a function of math and theoretical physics that can be applied to finance models. What a gauge is, is a measurement. Gauge symmetry is when the underlying variable of something changes, however, we do not observe that variable change.
A great example of this is if you and a friend are moving, and your friend is holding a box of tendies. The box is a cube, equal on all sides. If you turn away for a moment and she rotates the cube 90 degrees while you are not looking, and you look back - you would have no idea the cube was rotated. There was a very real change in the position of the cube in relation to space-time. Your friend acted on it. But you didn't measure it, in fact it would be impossible for you to determine if the box was changed at all if you weren't observing it. That movement of the box where you didn't observe it, is called gauge transformation and happens literally more then JPow fucks my mom in quantum physics. The object observably exactly the same even though it is not physically the same. The act of it existing as an observably the same box is gauge symmetry - it is by observation symmetrical.
Why this is important, is that fiat money doesn't have any absolute meaning. The value of $1 is arbitrary. furthermore, Inflation is a Guage symmetry. Inflation has no real impact on the real value of the underlying goods and services, but rather serves as a metric to measure the shift of value across a timeline.
When JPow starts pluggin' your mom along with all these balance sheets, there is a gauge symmetry event happening. The money he is printing is entering the system (gauge transformation), this isn't an issue if all pricing against the USD get shifted equally, however, the market is not accounting for this money because we don't have real-time data on what is being applied where, we only get a slow drip in terms of weekly and monthly reports. WE HAVE OUR EYES CLOSED. This is a gauge symmetry event.
When this happens in real terms, the market becomes dislocated from its real value price. Well how do we know there is a dislocation?
"YoU JuSt SaId tHe UnDeRlYiNg VaLuE iZ AbStRaCkKt HuRr QE aNd MaRkEtS Iz ComPlEx ReAd A TeXtBuK AbOuT FrAcTiOnAl ReSErVe BanKiNg YoU NeRd." - **anyone rationalizing the bull run**
We can look at Forex you fish.
USD lives in a bubble. The Yen is in a bubble, the RMB is in a bubble, and we exchange with each other. the Jap central bank has little effect on the CPI index (cost of goods and services) of the US. If the Yen prints a gazillion dollars, the USD is not effected EXCEPT in its exchange rate. YEN:USD would see a sizeable differential the more Yen is printed and vise-versa.
So NOW instead of JPow getting away with plowing your girlfriend, we can catch the bitch.
Instead of looking at the gauge transformation at face value and then giving up because it is symmetrical output, we can look and see if this gauge symmetry carries over to the foreign exchange market. Well guess what happens when you look at the value of the USD against foreign currencies.
Consistent uncertainty during the fed operations. Meaning the market of banks that partake in FX swaps don't know where to spot the USD. Generally a very very bad thing.
Value of the USD to Euro 2017-2020, notice the slow decline, then the chaos at the end
Above is the value of the USD to Euro, notice the sloping decline. The dollar has been growing weaker since 2017. At the end you see our present issues, lets #ENHANCE
USD to Euro, January 2020 to Present
When you see those spikes, those are days in between Fed action. The value of the US goes up when the fed doesn't print because people aren't spending. Non-spending is a deflationary event and has a direct impact on the CPI. However, each drop when you line up the dates, was a date of Fed spending.
Lets look outside of the Eurozone.

This is the RMB to USD. Yes China manipulates, but look at the end of the graph
China manipulated rates early in 2018 however you can see the steady incline upward towards the of 2018. More specifically, lets look at it since December.
RMB value against USD, January to Now
You Can see the Chinese RMB has been gaining steam since December, even with Chinese production falling off a cliff all through this pandemic.

What this rain man level autism means for the economy.

Looking across the board at Forex we can see the USD having a schizo panic attack jumping up and down like me at a mathematics lecture.
But what does all this gauge BDSM and shit have to do with the markets? Well it shows 1 of 3 things are occuring.
  1. The fed is printing money to offset deflationary pressures of the economy being fuk for the past month, and therefore all this printing is offset by the loss of liquidity throughout the system and we are all retared. (SECRET: THIS IS WHAT ALL THE INSTITUTIONS THINK IS HAPPENING AND WE WILL ALL BE FINE.)
  2. The deflationary event is overplayed, and JPow just is nailing his coffin together. This would result in long term hyperinflation similiar to the Weimar republic. The only hedge against this is to load up on strong currency that do not manipulate and have enough distance from US markets that they can have some safety (ironically the Ruble is the safest currency. Low link to the USD and not influenced by China, and on discount rn)
  3. The gauge transformation is actually not as severe as they are blurting out, the fed does not pass go, does not actually print 10 Trillion dollars, and this was all a marketing ploy to not get Trump involved and prop markets. In this case, the real deflationary event is real, the USD red rockets harder then my cock and we end up market-wise at a very high asset price in relation to real value. This one is most dangerous because it increases the real value of debt and has mass dislocation between real value and market cap. You took debt at a fixed interest rate and a fixed principal, this would cause the biggest GUH in history when all of a sudden you are $100 million in debt and your revenue was $50 million a year ago, but now is only $25 million. That $100 million in debt is still $100 million and now you have a credit crisis because past values of money were inflated. This spirals into a large scale solvency crisis of any company utilizing current growth methodology (levering up to your tits in debt)
In only 1 of these 3 scenarios do we see any sort of "good" outcome? That would be the offset of deflationary pressures.
It is very important to understand that inflation is only a measurement, and itself does not denote value of real goods and services.

Option 1 of a print fiesta that works (something similar to 1981-82) seems possible. A similar environment and reaction occured in the early 80s when the government brute-forced a bull run using these same offset theorems but in that situation, Volker at the fed had interest rates at 21.5% and had 20% to come down to stimulate the inflationary reaction.
Long term this would just lever up more debt and expanded the real wealth gap over time because we kicked the can down the road another 15 years. If that happens again socioeconomically I don't see capitalism surviving (yeah Im on my high horse get over it). This is the option that many fiscal policymakers and talking heads abide by and the reason why the markets are green. However, it is really just kicking it down the road and expanding real wealth inequality. You think Bernie Sanders is bad, wait until homes cost $3million dollars in Kentucky and AOC Jr comes around.

If we get option 2, we see hyperinflation and we turn into Zimbabwe, which is great, I've always wanted to see Africa. Long term we could push interest rate back to 1980 Volker levels and slowly revalue the US against real value commodities already pegged to the USD like oil. This would be a short term shock but because of international reliance on the USD system, we could slowly de-lever this inflation over 2-3 years and be back to normal capacity although the markets would blow their O-ring. Recession yes, but no long term depression.

If we get option 3, the worst long term option in my opinion, basically any company with any revolver line drawn down when that hits is going to go under, private equity won't touch it with a 20ft stick because cashflows couldn't possibly handle the debt on the end of the lever, and we see mass long term unemployment. The only way out of the spiral of option three is inflationary pressure from the fed+government, but because we are already so far down the rabbit hole at the current moment there's no fucking way we could print another 10 trillion. USD treasuries couldn't handle the guh and we would essentially be functionally forced into a long term (7-10 year) depression because nothing anyone could do would delever the value of the dollar. This would result in the long term collapse of the United States as a world power and would render us like Russia in 1991.

Thank you for coming to my ted talk.
submitted by TaxationIsTh3ft to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

External Debt to China as %age of GDP

External Debt to China as %age of GDP submitted by ToharBaap to geopolitics [link] [comments]

Since I angered some Chads on /r/investing here's why I think China is the next "big short".

Fellow idiots,
I posted this comment which seems to have angered the highly sophisticated /investing community. I don't mind being downvoted but at least provide some counter arguments if you're going to be a dick. So in the pursuit of truth and tendies for all, I have prepared some juicy due diligence (DD) for WSB Capital on why China is on the verge of collapse.
TL;DR at the bottom.
Point 1: Defaults in China have been accelerating aggressively, and through July 2019, 274 real estate developers filed for bankruptcy, up 50% over last year. A bonus? Many Chinese state controlled banks have been filing for bankruptcy as well. Just google "china bank defaults" or something similar. Notice how many articles there are from 2019? When the banking system fails, everything else usually fails too.
Point 2: The RMB has depreciated significantly. Last time this happened, in 2015-2016, there was a significant outflow of foreign invested capital. According to the IIF, outflows reached $725bn due to the currency depreciation.. This time is different why again? I have heard some arguments why there will be less outflow this time, but I struggle to buy them.
Point 3: Despite wanting to operate like a developed economy, China still has not been able to shrug off the middle income trap. Their GDP per capita is comparable to countries we normally associated with being developing/emerging markets. Tangentially related to point 10.
Point 4: China is an export-dependent economy, with about 20% of their exports contributing towards their GDP. Less exporting means less GDP, less consumption (because businesses make less money, they pay people less, who in turn spend less), which has a greater effect on GDP than any declines in exports would have at face value. Guess what? Chinese exports dropped 1% in August, and August imports dropped -1%, marking the 5th month this year of negative m/m export growth..
Point 5: Business confidence has been weak in China - declining at a sustained pace worse than in 2015. When businesses feel worse, they spend less, invest less in fixed assets, hire less until they feel better about the future. Which takes me to my next point.
Point 6: Fixed asset investment in China has declined 30 percentage points since 2010. While rates are low, confidence is also low, and they are sitting on a record amount of leverage, which means they simply will not be able to afford additional investment.
Point 7: They are an extremely levered economy with a total debt to GDP ratio of over 300%, per the IIF, which also accounts for roughly 15% of global total fucking debt. Here's an interview with someone else talking about it too.
Point 8: Their central bank recently introduced a metric fuckton of stimulus into their economy. This will encourage more borrowing....add fuel to the fire. Moreover, the stimulus will mechanically likely weaken the RMB even more, which could lead to even more foreign outflows, which are already happening, see next point.
Point 9: Fucking LOTS of outflows this year. As of MAY, according to this joint statement, around 40% of US companies are relocating some portion of their supply chains away from mainland. This was in May. Since May, we have seen even more tariffs imposed, why WOULD companies want to stay when exporting to the US is a lot more expensive now?
Point 10: Ignoring ALL of the points above, we are in a global synchronized slowdown, with many emerging market central banks cutting rates - by the most in a decade. Investors want safety, and safe-haven denominated assets are where we have seen a lot of flocking into recently. Things that can be considered safe-havens have good liquidity, a relatively stable economy, and a predictable political environment.
Would love to hear opposing thoughts if you think China is a good buy. I am not against China, nor any other country for that matter, but I am against losing money (yes, wrong sub etc.), and I can not rationalize why anyone would be putting in a bid.
TL;DR: the bubble is right in front of your face, impending doom ahead, short everything, fuck /investing.
Edit, since you 'tards keep asking me how to trade this, there are a few trades that come to mind:
*not investment advice*
submitted by ComicalEconomical to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

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submitted by GiuliettaShop to Popify [link] [comments]

RMB value...predictions?

so as I'm sure some of you know, the value of the RMB is in the toilet...used to be 6:1 for USD and now its beyond 7:1, making sending money home much less lucrative. Does anyone have a guess as to what the future holds? ive heard it said that it will A). bounce back soon if the trade disputes can be solved or B. continue to plummet if china hits economic turmoil or doubles down on whatever its already doing. Any good guesses? I can't tell if i should wait or just accept the low rate
edit: I am not a bigtime trader, just a dude saving money I make here
submitted by Your_Hmong to chinalife [link] [comments]

John Cairns, currency strategist with RMB CCP's Digital RMB Currency Controls All Spending  Chinese ... Exchange Rates Of The Chinese Renminbi, Yuan 15.02.2018 ...  Currencies and banking topics #21 Internationalization of Chinese currency Renminbi, Chinese economic reforms, Current Affairs 2018 Chinese Yuan Currency Exchange Rates - YouTube

View live forex rates and prices for commodities, indices and cryptos. Live streaming allows you to quickly spot any changes to a range of market assets. Home / Forex Education / RMB vs yuan: understanding the difference. Previous Next RMB vs yuan: understanding the difference. The national currency implies the money issued by a state central bank or any other state monetary institution. The Chinese currency is becoming popular and a more powerful international currency day by day. The group’s history can be traced back to the consolidation of Rand Merchant Bank and Rand Consolidated Investments in South Africa in 1987. RMB Holdings is the biggest shareholder in FirstRand, the largest banking group in South Africa, in which it has a 34% stake which translates into a market capitalization of R300 billion. China’s forex reserves already total $2.4 Trillion, and each Dollar that it adds will be worth less if/when it ultimately allows the RMB to appreciate further. In addition, China’s economic policymakers continue to fret about its exposure to the fiscal problems of the US, with one pointing out that, “ China has effectively been kidnapped ... RMB's share of global forex reserves hits record: IMF . CGTN Share . Copied. The Chinese share of currency reserves rose to 2.01 percent in the third quarter of 2019, the highest since October 2016, data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows. The Chinese renminbi's (RMB) share, which totaled 219.6 billion U.S. dollars, exceeded the ...

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John Cairns, currency strategist with RMB

Information Source: "Bank Of China" United States Dollar (USD) to Renminbi (RMB) … United Arab Emirates Dirham (AED) to Renminbi (RMB)… Brazilian Real (BRL) to Renminbi (RMB)… Cedi and Kwacha Trading Weaker - Neville Mandimika & Daniel Kavishe - RMB Global Markets - Duration: 6:15. Rand Merchant Bank Recommended for you Currency of the world - China. Chinese yuan Renminbi. Exchange rates China.Chinese banknotes - Duration: 3:42. Hobby World 1,940 views. 3:42. China & Russia Watch The Dollar Burn - Mike Maloney - ... America’s Fastest-Growing Newspaper is Now Available on Any Device: 🔵 http://ept.ms/EpochNews The CCP has been heavily promoting digital RMB and has recently... Rand Merchant Bank 6,890 views. 3:40. Basics of Fundamental Analysis in Forex Trading - Duration: ... How can you become your own currency analyst? with Camilla Sutton and Rob Carrick - Duration: ...

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